|
|
|
|
| Adam Carr's Election Archive
|
Australian federal election, 2025
Division of Swan, Western Australia
Named for: Swan River (named by Dutch explorer Willem de Vlamingh in 1697)
Southern Perth: Belmont, Cannington, Ferndale, South Perth, Welshpool
Enrolment at 2019 election: 100,781
Enrolment at 2022 election: 121,189 (+20.4)
1999 republic referendum: No 56.8
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 64.7
2023 Voice referendum: No 57.3
2007 Liberal majority over Labor: 0.1%
2010 Liberal majority over Labor: 2.3%
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 6.5%
2016 Liberal majority over Labor: 3.6%
2019 Liberal majority over Labor: 2.7%
2022 Labor majority over Liberal 8.8%
2025 notional Labor majority over Liberal 9.3%
Status: Fairly safe Labor
Labor two-party vote 1983-2022
2022 results
Statistics and history
Announced candidates:
 |
 |
Mic Fels
Liberal Party |
Zaneta Mascarenhas
Australian Labor Party |
Division of Swan
Swan has existed since Federation, but from 1901 to 1949 it was a rural seat based in the upper Swan valley and the Wheat
Belt, with no connection with the current seat. The seat was effectively re-created in 1949, based in the southern
riverside suburbs, and in this form has always been a highly marginal seat, combining as it does strong Liberal areas in
South Perth with Labor strongholds such as Bentley and Victoria Park. Swan has a medium level of median family income and a
fairly high level of people in non English speaking households. It also has a low level of families with dependent
children, so it is not a mortgage belt seat.
For its first 18 years Swan was held by
Sir John Forrest, the first Premier of WA, one of the fathers of Federation and
Treasurer in successive non-Labor governments, but thwarted in his ambition to be Prime Minister.
Kim Beazley, later Deputy Prime Minister, won Swan for Labor in 1980. During
the 1980s he built up a strong position in the seat, but was nearly defeated in 1993 and moved to
Brand in 1996, leaving Swan
to fall to the Liberals.
Kim Wilkie regained the seat for Labor in 1998, but surprisingly lost it to the
Liberals in 2007, the year of Labor's return to office.
Steve Irons, who won Swan in 2007, was a company director before his election. He increased his majority in 2010 and 2013, but suffered swing against him in 2016 2019.
In August 2018 he was appointed an assistant minister, but was dropped in December 2020. He retired at the 2022 election.
The 2021 redisribution slightly improved the Liberal position by extending the seat eastwards, but
that was not enough to save the Liberals from the strong swing to Labor in WA in 2022
Zaneta Mascarenhas, an engineer specialising in climate-related projects.
She is of Goan (Indian-Portuguese) descent. Although she has a comfortable majority on paper (which has been improved by the 2024
redistribution), the large swings to Labor
in WA in 2022 were largely due to state issues, particularly arising from the COVID pandemic. This means that the Labor majority in Swan is
considerably over-stated. The Liberal candidate in 2025 will be Mic Fels, a farmer and businessman.
Back to main page
| |
