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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2025
Division of Fowler, New South Wales
Named for: Lillian Fowler (1886-1954), first female mayor in Australia, NSW MP 1944-50
South-western Sydney: Bossley Park, Cabramatta, Chipping Norton, Liverpool, Warwick Farm
Enrolment at 2019 election: 106,975
Enrolment at 2022 election: 108,429 (+01.5)
1999 republic referendum: Yes 51.9
2018 same-sex marriage survey: No 63.7
2023 Voice referendum: No 60.2
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Sitting member: Dai Le (Independent): Elected 2022
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2007 Labor majority over Liberal: 18.3%
2010 Labor majority over Liberal: 8.8%
2013 Labor majority over Liberal: 16.8%
2016 Labor majority over Liberal: 17.5%
2019 Labor majority over Liberal: 14.0%
2022 Indedpendent majority over Labor 01.6%
2025 notional Indedpendent majority over Labor 01.6%
Status 2022: Very marginal Independent (over Labor)
Labor two-party vote 1984-2022
2022 results
Statistics and history
Announced candidates:
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Dai Le
Independent |
Tu Le
Australian Labor Party |
Division of Fowler
Fowler was created in 1984, based in the heartland of Sydney's south-western suburbs in the Liverpool-Cabramatta area.
Over the past 30 years this has become Australia's most economically and socially deprived urban area. Fowler usually has
among the highest rates of unemployment, of families in poverty, and of people with no post-school qualifications, of
any urban seat. The electorate also has the country's highest proportion of people born in non English speaking countries,
the bulk of whom were born in South-East Asia. It has the highest proportion of non English speaking households (72%)
of any seat in Australia. It recorded at strong No vote in the 2018 same-sex marriage survey.
Not surprisingly, Fowler has always been a very safe Labor seat. But the Labor Party has never used this, one of its
safest seats, as the base for a candidate with ministerial, let alone leadership, prospects. Its first two members,
Ted Grace and
Julia Irwin, were undistinguished backbenchers. In 2010 Irwin
retired, and the seat was used to accommodate Chris Hayes, who had been displaced from
Werriwa.
Chris Hayes was assistant national secretary of the
Australian Workers' Union and senior adviser to the Police Federation of Australia and New Zealand before his election.
The 2010 redistribution resulted in
John Murphy moving from the abolished seat of
Lowe to
Reid, and
Laurie Ferguson moved from Reid to Werriwa, requiring
Hayes to move to the vacant Fowler. This provoked a sharp swing again Labor in 2010, but Hayes then restored Labor's
dominant position. He became Chief Government Whip in 2013 and Chief Opposition Whip in 2013.
Hayes retired in 2022. The Labor candidate was Senator Kristina
Keneally, former Premier of NSW, who lived on the northern beaches and had no connection with the area. The provoked
a strong local reaction, and Keneally was defeated in one of Labor's safest seats by a local independent.
Dai Le, Independent MP for Fowler since 2022, was born in Vietnam and came to Australia
as a refugee as a child. She worked as a journalist for local newspapers and then for the ABC. At one time she was a member of the
Liberal Party. She was elected to Fairfield Council in 2012. The Labor candidate will be Tu Le, a lawyer who works at a community legal
centre. Tu Le was passed over for the Labor nomination in favour of Keneally in 2022.
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